In the NHL, however, teams employ different strategies when it comes to manning the net. In the NBA, for example, teams typically use the same lineup each night, so I can use the same power rating for each game. Based on the Log5 formula, the home team has a 64.6% chance of winning the game.Ī variable I must account for in modeling the NHL that I don’t for other sports is goalie usage. For example, if an away team is a 55% win percentage team and the home team is a 62% win percentage team, the away team is adjusted to a 51.25% win percentage team and the home team is a 65.75% win percentage team.

This means that I subtract 3.75% from the away team’s power rating and add 3.75% to the home team’s power rating.

To account for home-ice advantage, I give each team a 7.5% edge at home.

Even though that formula is mainly used for baseball, it has been found to be accurate for the NHL as well.

By taking the expected win percentage of two teams, I can figure out each team’s probability of winning a game based on Bill James’s Log5 formula.How does this Stanley Cup Playoff simulator work? The power rating for each team is an expected win percentage that each team should have based on their recent play if they only played. The NHL is a little different than my other simulations. I can then simulate a team’s chances of winning based on the ratings between the two teams in a given matchup. Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Stanley Cup tipster picks.Įach team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is assigned a power rating. Get up to $1,500 in first bet insurance when you use our promo code. 2022 Stanley Cup OddsĪll 2022 Stanley Cup odds are current as of Tuesday, May 31, from BetMGM Sportsbook.īefore you make your next Stanley Cup bet, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions.

To come up with my power ratings and build my model, I looked up other power ratings and consulted a few sharp NHL bettors such as the Game Day’s own Frank Ammirante and my friend Zach Pitcher.īelow, read to find out my model’s best NHL Playoff bets and how I came up with them. That is why I decided to take a stab at the NHL. I have done it for March Madness, NFL, NBA, and MLB. With my programming skills, I can bet on any sport, as long as I have the best numbers to work with. I am not much of a hockey bettor myself, but I am great at building simulations of playoffs. With the Stanley Cup playoffs halfway done, we have exciting Eastern and Western Conference Finals matchups.

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